Bush and Kerry seek edge from bin Laden tape
John Wildermuth and Carla Marinucci, Chronicle Political Writers
Sunday, October 31, 2004
The face of Osama bin Laden stayed center stage in the frenzied final weekend of the 2004 presidential race as President Bush and his Democratic opponent, Sen. John Kerry, seized on the terrorist's videotaped warning in an effort to gain an edge in what remains a dead heat.
Kerry, on a cross-country final road trip through the battleground states, told a Wisconsin audience Saturday that bin Laden should not divide Americans.
"We are absolutely united, all of us. There are no Democrats, there are no Republicans," Kerry said. "As Americans, we are united in our determination to destroy, capture, kill Osama bin Laden and all of the terrorists. They are barbarians, and we are going to hunt them down and we will make America safe."
Bush, meanwhile, pounded the theme of his leadership in the war on terror during a four-state swing.
"This will be the first presidential election since September the 11th, 2001. Americans go to the polls at a time of war, and ongoing threats unlike any we have faced before,'' he told a Michigan audience. "The terrorists who killed thousands of innocent people are still dangerous, and they are determined.''Reprising a theme used by his father during the 1992 election, Bush asked the crowds "Who do you trust?'' to lead in such troubled times.With just two days until millions of Americans cast their ballots, it was unclear whether or how much the chilling message from bin Laden that was aired Friday -- including his claim of responsibility for the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks -- would influence the presidential race, which for more than a year has been centered on the war on Iraq and terrorism issues.
Homeland security director Tom Ridge held a conference call with 350 top law enforcement officials Saturday and told them the terror alert level would not be raised prior to Tuesday's election.my comments: why not?
Analysts and polls offered conflicting views on whether Americans would be swayed in the presidential race by the al Qaeda terrorist leader's message. A Newsweek poll released Saturday after the tape's widespread broadcast gave the president a 50-44 lead over Kerry, a two-point bounce from the day before. An ABC News tracking poll released Saturday, however, showed the president down slightly from a previous poll and clinging to a 49-48 edge over Kerry. But more significant than national polls in the closing days are the hard-fought contests in the remaining battleground states, which include Florida, Minnesota, Ohio, Iowa, Wisconsin, Nevada and New Mexico.
"Nobody in their right mind bets on this," Rob Daves, a Minnesota pollster told the Associated Press of the battleground races.
Campaign insiders said the outcome in those states may depend on additional breaking news as well as factors planned long before Tuesday: get out the vote efforts by both parties and millions spent in last-minute ads.
"I think that as election day gets closer and they have to finally make a decision, they realize how tough that decision is going to be,'' said pollster Steve Mitchell of Michigan, on undecided voters.
Even Hawaii found itself the center of some unexpected attention this weekend, as Vice President **** Cheney and Democratic former Vice President Al Gore made the trip to the Democratic-leaning Aloha State after polls showed a tighter-than-expected race for its four electoral votes.
Campaign operatives for both candidates were quick to suggest the bin Laden tape would help their side -- and complained the other was trying to politicize it. Republican Sen. John McCain of Arizona told the Associated Press "it's very helpful to the president,'' because the videotape "focuses America's attention on the war on terrorism.'' my comments: one way to look at it.
Cheney told supporters in Ohio that "we have all seen the tape of bin Laden," which is "a reminder'' the U.S. is engaged in a global war on terror.
Republicans tried to suggest Kerry was using the tape as a political tool when the Massachusetts senator -- as he has for weeks -- criticized Bush for letting bin Laden slip away by "outsourcing" the job of his capture to local warlords.
The Republican complaints brought a tough response from Kerry adviser Joe Lockhart, who told reporters "John Kerry ... has never questioned the president's commitment to defending this country. He has only questioned whether we've pursued the best strategy to doing it -- and diverting resources from Afghanistan and al Qaeda to Iraq is something we profoundly disagree on. It's an issue John Kerry has talked about every day and will continue to talk about.''
Kerry also hammered his theme that Americans deserve "a fresh start" to deal with terrorism and the Iraq war abroad, and the economy at home.
"In three days, a woman or a husband is going to walk into that polling booth and they're going to think about their spouse that left to go to Iraq months ago, maybe close to a year ago," Kerry said. "And they're going to wonder how long that spouse is going to have to stay in Iraq, and the kids are going to be wondering, 'Daddy, Mommy, when are you coming home? Are you coming home?' "The bin Laden tape, the barrage of television ads and the flood of political mailers won't have any effect on the record number of voters who have already cast their ballots. Thirty-two states offer early voting or liberal absentee balloting, spurring millions of Americans to cast their votes already. My comments: It will not make any difference?
In the battleground state of Florida, more than 1.8 million people already have cast their ballots, more than double the number who voted early in 2000.
In Nevada, where early voting ended Friday, election officials reported the record numbers of early and absentee ballots should add up to about half of the 800,000 people expected to vote by the time polls close Tuesday.
In Oregon, where all voting is by mail, 38 percent of the state's registered voters already have returned their ballots. Election officials in Tennessee and Georgia reported waits of three hours or more at the early voting polling places.
The nationwide turnout could hit 117 million to 122 million out of a pool of about 203.9 million eligible Americans, experts predict, or 57 to 60 percent of the voting-eligible population. That would smash the record of 105.4 million set in 2000.
"This proves that if you have an interesting election, people will vote. There's nothing wrong with the American electorate that a competitive race won't cure,'' said Michael McDonald of George Mason University and the Brookings Institution who is one of the leaders of the election day polling effort that allows networks to call races on election night.
The surge of early voting could be good news for Kerry, because a high-turnout election typically brings out more ethnic, low-income and younger voters, who tend to support Democrats.
"These early voting numbers we see have got to give Karl Rove heartburn,'' McDonald said, referring to Bush's political guru. "If this trend continues, we will be tipping over into people who ordinarily don't vote. I think this could be good news for the Democrats.''
One cautionary note is that no one can be sure if the big early voting turnout is simply transferring election-day turnout.
Republicans say a big turnout could help Bush. They have marshaled their forces to turn out the vote, aiming at evangelical churches, the overseas military vote and rural areas. Rove has said there are 4 million evangelicals who didn't vote in 2000 who are now the focus of Republican efforts.
Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia was cautious over predictions about the turnout.
"A higher turnout favors Kerry very slightly because new registrants should be 55 percent to 60 percent Democratic. You'd think that would favor Kerry. But I remain to be convinced that these people will show up,'' he said.
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